A few players would have slept really well after the last game of the 2024 Candidates. Fabiano Caruana, Ian Nepomniachtchi, Dommaraju Gukesh among others. And what a feeling it must have been for them to realise that they no longer had to go to the tournament venue to play chess. There is a point where everyone gets sick of playing chess and I must say that despite the excitement of the event, I got sick of chess just watching them play. I much prefer events where one game is played every week but at the top level, they have committements all over the world and cannot afford to stay at the same place for too long. People who play at world class level cash in by playing in individual and team events. They just cannot get away from chess and when World Champion Ding Liren took a long break from chess, he quickly understood that a top level chess player is a well-oiled machine that cannot be left rusting.
A few of the Candidates players will wonder about what may have happened if...
Ian Nepomniachtchi allowed Nijat Abasov to get a draw in the very first round. What if he had pushed a bit more and played for a win? He played the Queen's Gambit Declined and at one point, everything came off the board, leaving a drawn single rook endgame. In his second encounter against Abasov, he drew again. In a tournament where Abasov was clearly the weakest link, drawing against him twice gave the rest of the field an advantage. Abasov lost half his games and did not win a single one. Nepo will understand that his failure to beat Abasov in at least one game has cost him dearly. It was the difference between finishing first or second. If someone had told him before round one "you need to score 1.5/2 against Abasov to win the Candidates," he would have taken it with a smile.
Fabiano Caruana started well and established himself as a strong favourite early on, especially considering his experience at Candidate level. He started with a draw against Hikaru Nakamura, then a win against Nijat Abasov. It was followed by draws against Alireza Firouzja, Dommaraju Gukesh, Vidit Gujrathi, Ian Nepomniachtchi and Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa. He looked his usual self until he lost to Hikaru Nakamura, followed by a draw against Nijat Abasov. That is when he lost touch with the pack until he bounced back by beating Alireza Firouzja, Vidit Gujrathi and Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa. However, he left his run too late. Caruana is another player who is going to regret complacent draws and missed wins.
36yo Hikaru Nakamura, who says he will not play at this level beyond the age of 40, surprised everyone by storming into contention. Everyone knew he is a very strong player but for some reason, none of the "experts" really expected him to win the event. He has proved in the past that he can win strong tournaments, so perhaps he should not have been underestimated at the expense of Caruana or Nepo. In the end he nearly finished equal first, missing out by half a point. I suspect he prepared openings that were not too ambitious, keeping the draw in hand. It would have been interesting to see an accomplished rapid, blitz, and bullet player get into the playoffs.
There are good lessons to learn from a winner takes all event. Perhaps the only way to play in the Candidates is to go for a win in every game. However, this would be physically and mentally taxing. This is why the top professional players manage their run very carefully and insert pseudo-days off along the way. Even for top players, playing at full capacity all the time may be unreasonable. However, Dommaraju Gukesh has shown that (apart from one game) he could play close to 100%. His accuracy level was remarkable and his ability to find the correct continuations in time pressure was incredible.
A few players will no doubt learn a lot from the experience. Vidit Gujrathi was inconsistent, sometimes winning brilliantly and sometimes getting badly outplayed. Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa did not deliver on the expectations. Alireza Firouzja was hyped before the event but his overall performance was very disappointing. Who could have predicted his finish of 5/14?
In the women’s event, it was the predictable Chinese race and Zhongyi Tan did what she needed to do and finished a point and a half ahead of the rest. Tingjie Lei, who last challenged for the weorld crown had a very disappointing second half. She played for stuff that wasn't there and collapsed. It also looked like her preparation in some of the games was not up to it. She lost three games (against Zhongyi Tan's single loss) and finished third. Rameshbabu Vaishali put in the outstanding performance of the second half. She may have lost five games early on but she then scored six wins. Out of 14 games, she only drew three. She went from bottom to second position and it is not the last time we hear from her at the top level. Humpy Koneru also had a strong finish and she went to the bottom to finish fourth (tied on points with Tingjie Lei and Rameshbabu Vaishali). She has shown remarkable grit and stamina, holding slightly unfavourable positions for a long time and then grinding her opponents in the endgame. Aleksandra Goryachkina and Kateryna Lagno promised a lot but never delivered, each drawing far too many games in a cutthroat event. Nurgyul Salimova (just like Lagno) only won one game and finished second last. Anna Muzychuk did not win a single game and finished bottom. She has not shown enough to be considered a contender of the future.
With the amazing performance of Dommaraju Gukesh, the flashes of brilliance from Vidit Gujrathi and the solid performance of Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa, we can declare the 2024 Candidates a tremendous success for India. Rameshbabu Vaishali and Humpy Koneru in the women completed the picture. The Indian contingent did not come to take part, the came to take over. How many millions of Indian kids will now take up chess? Will we have another Gukesh in 15 years?
My prediction for the World Title is a Dommaraju Gukesh victory who will defeat defending champion Ding Liren. It will be a difficult match, especially if Liren regains form but with people like Anand on Gukesh's camp, it will be hard for the Chinese to defend his title. In the women's, I cannot see Zhongyi Tan defeat current champion Ju Wenjun.